Fun and games in macro markets

As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) cut base rates this year, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) stayed on hold. No prizes for getting that right. But congratulations if you also had a 12-hour UK gilt mini-crisis and then an A.I.-led risk-off rally on your 2025 bingo card.

One man has been playing all the cards: US President Donald Trump. He’s back to what he does best – driving the narrative. In a blizzard of executive orders, policy hints, and off-the-cuff comments, Trump has covered an array of topics in just a few weeks. The two subjects that have markets most captivated? Tariffs and Ukraine.

Tariffs started off slow with Colombia in the firing line, before Mexico and Canada came hurtling into view. After giving the US’s closest trading partners a one-month stay of execution, Trump moved onto a sector-specific approach targeting aluminium and steel. We’ve since moved onto ‘reciprocal tariffs’ but will have to wait until April to learn the rules of that particular Trump tariff game.

What is clear is that Trump hasn’t changed from his first term. He likes to play games with his rivals. However, what’s less clear is how Trump solves his own US economic puzzle. It won’t be easy.

US – Rubik’s Cube

Trump’s economic strategy is a lot like a Rubik’s Cube. The goal of the Hungarian 3D puzzle is to align all the blocks so that each side shows the same colour. The tricky part is that each layer turns independently, so focusing on one side can throw the others out of whack.

Trump’s goal is to ‘Make America Great Again’ and oversee a thriving US economy as he heads into the 2026 mid-term elections. To achieve this, inflation needs to be under control. This was the key problem for President Biden, who saw US growth and job creation accelerate but prices outpace wages. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in the summer of 2022. Trump has two years to make the average American feel richer.

Back to the Rubik’s Cube. To prioritise American jobs for American people, Trump is applying tariffs and slashing immigration. That’s one side of his policy cube looking complete. However, these polices, combined with mooted tax cuts, are potentially inflationary – pushing the other side of the cube out of line.

Price pressures are not like they were during Trump’s first term. The most recent Consumer Price Index read 3% year on year, and consumers still feel the pinch of much higher price levels. It wouldn’t take much for inflation to move back into uncomfortable territory. The prospect of rate hikes would move yet another side of the Trump Rubik’s Cube in the wrong direction.

Keeping inflation in check is possible. Trump wants to pursue lower energy prices and, with Elon Musk’s help, drastically cut government spending. But again, how will aggressive government spending cuts affect the growth side of the cube? We’ll watch the data with interest.

On the tariff front, we should hear what ‘reciprocal tariffs’ look like at the start of April. On tax cuts, we await more details and substance.

Research shows that any Rubik’s Cube can be solved in 20 moves. We think it will take a lot more than this to complete Trump’s economic puzzle. US yields have the potential to head higher as a result.

UK – dodging snakes and climbing ladders

The UK faces a game of snakes and ladders. The ultimate prize is lower interest rates.

The BoE cut rates in February with the message of ‘gradual and careful’. Inflation is likely to move higher in 2025, but the BoE seems comfortable with its long-term forecasts. The Bank believes any near-term rise in inflation will be temporary and that it can continue to cut base rates.

The BoE’s first possible ladder up the board is the continued loosening of the labour market. Most indicators show the jobs markets rapidly cooling. This will embolden the BoE to speed up rate cuts when this feeds through to the official wage data. A smaller ladder comes in March: we might see more aggressive government spending cuts if the Office of Budget Responsibility review shows Chancellor Reeves is close to breaking her own fiscal rules. Reduced government outlays would likely to inhibit growth and increase the probability of cuts.

The largest, fiercest snake is inflation. Increases to the national living wage and national insurance contributions kick in from April. There’s a risk many firms will pass these costs onto consumers. The BoE expects only a modest price increase as a result, yet there’s still scope for an inflationary surprise. The way these policy changes feed through to the real world will determine how quickly the BoE can get to the top of the snakes and ladders board.

Our view for some time has been that the BoE gets there quicker than the market expects. We think labour market weakening will outweigh the risk of inflation. We are, as a result, happy to remain long gilts.

Europe - GAAAAAMBLE?!

Europe, and Germany in particular, face a classic gameshow dilemma: stick with what they’ve won or gamble for the star prize and risk walking away with nothing? Cue the slick gameshow host turning to the crowd for advice.

In Europe, the answer is gaaaamble. Former ECB Chairman Mario Draghi’s recent report argued for further European investment. French President Macron said that Europe cannot remain herbivores (see our last article Fixed income: Eat meat or die...). As we write, the new Trump administration is making it abundantly clear that Europe needs to step up, particularly in defence spending. The German election might offer the opportunity for one of Europe’s core economies to reset its relationship with borrowing. This would have far reaching implications for the Eurozone’s future direction.

From an investment perspective, we think it’s inevitable that Europe will start spending, despite the previous efforts at fiscal restraint. Leading figures in the European establishment have even called for some relaxation of fiscal rules via exceptions for defence spending. This will be uncomfortable for the likes of Italy and France with their high debt-to-GDP ratios. For Germany, this could mean a new government revisiting the ‘debt brake’.

The ECB might prefer that Europe plays it safe. With an unclear outlook and a challenging balance between growth and inflation, the ECB is noticeably hesitant. It may well signal a slowing of rate cuts.

For these reasons, we think European yields can head higher, with a bias for the yield curve to steepen.

Playing the game in today’s markets

Markets are so far brushing off the policy noise. We’ll need details before yields start to move in either direction on a sustained basis. For now, we expect key participants to continue playing without fully revealing their hand.

In this environment, investors can see the value in actively managed funds. Making the most of short-term mispricing and careful position management offers plenty of opportunities for the nimble active investment manager. Like all games: you have to be in it to potentially win it.