LoginOpens in new window
Opens in new window
  1. Home
  2. Insights and Research
Global Macro Research
Macro Bytes

Is the Fed behind the curve? Is the Bank of Japan dangerously ahead of the curve?

Macro Bytes returns after a summer break to discuss why the ‘Sahm rule’ isn’t a rule, why inflation has been more volatile and how what happens in Japan matters to global markets.

Authors
Paul Diggle
Paul Diggle
Chief Economist
Luke Bartholomew
Luke Bartholomew
Deputy Chief Economist
Contributors
James McCann, Sree Kochugovindan

Duration: 33 Mins

Date: Aug 26, 2024

A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether “this time is different” for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy. 

Related articles

Global Macro Research4 min Read

Macro Bytes: How do we build the infrastructure our economies need?

Discover the future of infrastructure with our latest insights. We explore funding strategies and cutting-edge technologies. Read on to find out more.

Macro Bytes: How do we build the infrastructure our economies need?
Global Macro Research31 min Listen

How to fund our future infrastructure needs - with Bridget Rosewell

Discover how climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are reshaping infrastructure needs. Join Paul Diggle and Bridget Rosewell for an insightful discussion.

How to fund our future infrastructure needs - with Bridget Rosewell
Global Macro Research4 min Read

Global Economic Outlook: Is this time different?

The Fed has made its big rate cut decision. Concerns now pivot from inflation to a possible US recession. We weigh into the debate. Find out more.

Global Economic Outlook: Is this time different?
Global Macro Research1 min Read

What to expect from the UK budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the Labour government’s first budget on 30 October. Technical tweaks to the treatment of Bank of England losses can create some fiscal space, but material tax increases will be necessary to satisfy the fiscal rules. This note surveys the economic and fiscal landscape and outlines the potential tax increases.

What to expect from the UK budget
Global Macro Research25 min Listen

How painful will the UK Budget be?

The UK’s new Labour government blames its predecessors for leaving the country’s finances in a mess. How true is that? What can Chancellor Rachel Reeves do to fix problems and boost long-term growth when she unveils her first Budget next month?

How painful will the UK Budget be?
View all articles
Risk warning

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and an investor may get back less than the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future results.