A combination of fiscal slippage, economic resilience and rising inflation expectations has increased the upside risks to the inflation outlook, leading the Brazilian central bank (BCB) to pause its cutting cycle and keep its policy rate at 10.50% since June.

We expect the pause to continue through the rest of the year, as the BCB looks to ensure that Brazil’s inflation doesn’t reaccelerate. 

Indeed, we expect inflation to be slow to reach the BCB’s 3% target mid-point on a sustained basis, averaging 4.2% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025. 

However, a shift towards modest fiscal consolidation in the second half of 2024, along with still restrictive monetary conditions, will weigh on activity and ensure inflation remains broadly within the 3% +/-1.5ppts target band.

With the US Federal Reserve set to begin its easing cycle in September, we think the BCB should have scope to resume cuts in 2025, taking the policy rate to 9.75% by year end.

However, risks are skewed towards tighter policy. Renewed fiscal concerns in 2025 and an erosion of BCB independence could lead to investors becoming increasing concerned about the inflation outlook with the BCB then having to keep policy more restrictive. 

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