Despite stresses in the banking sector, the ECB today delivered the 50bps hike it indicated at its previous meeting.
The Eurozone is already well into a steep hiking cycle. But core inflation remains at an all-time high.
The Bank’s press release stresses that it stands “ready to respond as necessary” to further deterioration in the financial sector, and President Lagarde noted the depth of the policy toolkit available should that deterioration materialise.
The ECB maintains that the banking sector is resilient and well-capitalised.
In contrast to the previous meeting, no concrete guidance regarding policy decisions at upcoming meetings was given. All communications stressed the data dependence of the path of policy at the current juncture.
We forecast 25bps hikes in May and June, but it is hard to express much confidence at this stage.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its inflation focus for now, compartmentalising the job of raising interest rates from volatility in the global banking sector.