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Insights and research

The expert opinion and research driving our investment decisions.

Insights

A US small caps rebirth?
Insights
A US small caps rebirth?

After a prolonged period of underperformance relative to large caps, a look at how initial signs may point to a potential uptick in US small-cap stocks.

5 min Read
Frontier bonds: are they worth the risk?
Insights
Frontier bonds: are they worth the risk?

Many investors view frontier bonds as high risk. Here’s why they might be missing out.

3 min Read
President Milei’s policies: progress or pitfalls for Argentina?
Insights
President Milei’s policies: progress or pitfalls for Argentina?

Has President Milei succeeded in changing Argentina’s fortunes? Where are the future risks and opportunities?

4 min Read
EMD outlook: election fever
Insights
EMD outlook: election fever

With the election season in EM reaching its finale, we take stock of the potential implications and look ahead to where investment opportunities may arise.

5 min Read
Frontier-market sovereign debt: distressed to impress
Insights
Frontier-market sovereign debt: distressed to impress

Frontier market defaults provide valuable lessons and can create compelling investment opportunities.

5 min Read
Is the future of income emerging?
Insights
Is the future of income emerging?

We ask if dividend investors should consider diversifying into emerging markets.

4 min Read
The value of short-dated credit under various scenarios
Insights
The value of short-dated credit under various scenarios

‘Soft landing’, ‘hard landing’ or interest rates ‘higher-for-longer': which do we think is most likely and what could it mean for short-dated credit?

5 min Read
Misperceptions may be masking a golden opportunity in China
Insights
Misperceptions may be masking a golden opportunity in China

We explain why now offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors to buy quality Chinese companies at bargain prices.

6 min Read
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Global Macro Research

Is the US economy bending, breaking or broken?
Global Macro Research
Is the US economy bending, breaking or broken?

The US economy is proving resilient, but we continue to expect rapid monetary tightening to trigger a recession later this year. Recent banking turmoil will lead to tighter credit conditions, adding to headwinds. Although we don’t expect a systemic financial crisis, we highlight key waymarks to monitor the risk of a more acute credit crisis. 

6 min Read
How much further will the Fed hike rates?
Global Macro Research
How much further will the Fed hike rates?

The direct spillover effects of banking sector turmoil and the information it provides about the lagged effects of past tightening mean we have reduced our forecast for the terminal policy rate.

6 min Read
Inflation watch: reopening, recession and oil
Global Macro Research
Inflation watch: reopening, recession and oil

Following the fall in commodity prices amid financial sector volatility, China’s reopening and still-strong US activity may provide a supportive backdrop for prices over the coming months.

7 min Read
China enjoys a strong start to 2023 and policy remains key
Global Macro Research
China enjoys a strong start to 2023 and policy remains key

Rebounding consumption is consistent with our above-consensus growth call and the unexpected property surge adds further upside.

5 min Read
Innovation: what are the habits of successful innovators?
Global Macro Research
Innovation: what are the habits of successful innovators?

In the second instalment of our Innovation Superstars series, we analyse millions of datapoints to better understand the similarities that the most innovative US companies share.

5 min Read
Recession looms over the US despite market optimism
Global Macro Research
Recession looms over the US despite market optimism

Markets are increasingly pricing in a soft landing for the US economy. But we remain sceptical. Broad measures of wage growth have not softened sufficiently, and underlying inflation pressures remain elevated.

6 min Read
Demographics – Emerging markets forge their own destiny
Global Macro Research
Demographics – Emerging markets forge their own destiny

Bob Gilhooly thinks demography is only one factor that will determine the economic vitality of emerging markets.How emerging markets develop will affect everyone via inflation and interest rates. Read on to find out more…

4 min Read
China: rules for business vs the business of ruling
Global Macro Research
China: rules for business vs the business of ruling

Recession is coming. Economic shocks that once looked like separate headwinds emanating from different places at different times, are now coming together into a perfect storm for the global economy. Read on to find out more…

4 min Read
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