Unfortunately getting old can come with a stigma. Many people try to delay the inevitable with regular exercise, healthy diet and a strict skincare regime, but time stops for no one.

Unfortunately getting old can come with a stigma. Many people try to delay the inevitable with regular exercise, healthy diet and a strict skincare regime, but time stops for no one.

Aging can also be a problem for countries. Many developed markets (DMs) are starting to struggle with aging populations and their associated social and economic issues.

Looking forward, it could be a problem even for the emerging world, which faces a slowdown in the growth of its "working-age" population over the next 30 years. Most major emerging markets (EMs) have exhausted their "demographic dividends" and can expect rising dependency ratios — fewer workers will need to support more retirees.

Emerging market demographics "in focus" – implications for growth and the rise of the global middle class is the first of three research papers that seek to examine the nature and consequences of long-term demographic change in the major emerging countries and regions.

For example, it examines whether the number of actively-engaged workers in a labour force is more important than simplistic measures of the working-age population; and how rising education levels in poorer countries could help offset the damaging economic effects of fewer workers. In society we need to guard against ageism. That’s also true when thinking about economic growth.

In society we need to guard against ageism. That’s also true when thinking about economic growth.

Demographics are important….

Demography is important. As well as affecting the total size of an economy through the number of people and workers, a shifting demographic profile has the potential to influence economies in other ways – via investment levels, interest rates and inflation, for example.

Across major EMs the boost from previously rising labour forces is fading fast. Over the next three decades, almost all EMs can expect a falling contribution to potential growth from labour, with some countries facing a drag on growth as the number of workers falls.

Only developing Asia (excluding China and Thailand), the Middle East and Africa will enjoy any meaningful gains from their labour force.

Chart – Only Nigeria and Pakistan may continue to reap ‘demographic dividends’*
Chart

Demographics are important….

Demography is important. As well as affecting the total size of an economy through the number of people and workers, a shifting demographic profile has the potential to influence economies in other ways — via investment levels, interest rates and inflation, for example.

Across major EMs the boost from previously rising labor forces is fading fast. Over the next three decades, almost all EMs can expect a falling contribution to potential growth from labour, with some countries facing a drag on growth as the number of workers falls.

Only developing Asia (excluding China and Thailand), the Middle East and Africa will enjoy any meaningful gains from their labor force.

Chart – Only Nigeria and Pakistan may continue to reap demographic dividends*

  1. Source: abrdn, March 2021