Key Takeaways
Recent elections show second-term presidents rarely
benefit from a unified Congress. A second-term Biden
administration would probably face divided
government and would struggle to implement policy.
If Trump wins the GOP primary and the presidential
race, the rarity of non-consecutive terms makes
predicting Congressional implications difficult. But
Trump’s “coattail” effect down-ticket could be weaker
than new presidents typically generate.
Stepping back, divided government is becoming more
common. The US has not experienced consecutive
congressional terms with all three pillars under one
party since 2007.
Associated with this has been a faster turnover of
majorities. Last century a party could on average
expect to hold the House for 12 years and the Senate
for 8.4 years after winning a majority. This century that
average has fallen to 4.8 years in both chambers.
Divided government has implications for how
presidents implement their legislative agenda. The
bulk of legislative action is likely to take place during a
narrow window of unified government.
Partisan, divided government raises political risks
around ‘must pass’ legislation such as the debt ceiling
and makes substantial fiscal response to major US
challenges such as recessions less likely. The risk of
one party overturning the legislative actions of its
predecessors in government is also higher.