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In this episode we discuss what the outcomes of the UK, French and US election may mean for investors.
The French legislative elections delivered a parliament split three ways, with the left-wing New Popular Front the surprise victor. Markets were initially modestly encouraged by the prospect of policy stasis preventing a large fiscal expansion. But France will struggle to form a stable government.
The Labour Party will form the next UK government after securing a large majority. Financial markets are largely unmoved, though UK assets may ultimately benefit from a “stability dividend”. But with fiscal space limited, the result does not materially shift the near-term growth outlook, and any boost from supply-side reforms will take time to materialise.
China’s green investment surge is supporting economic growth and more than offsetting the drag from the beleaguered property sector. This pivot is essential to meet global climate targets. But it is also adding to geopolitical tensions, and there are looming headwinds from EV consolidation and excess battery capacity.
abrdn's economists discuss France’s snap election and the potential fiscal and political impacts.