The rate cutting cycle will be shortened in the US and some emerging markets, with the Fed only cutting by 75bp and the fed funds rate settling at 3.5%-3.75%.

Global debt is now US$100 trillion, close to 100% of global GDP. Additional US tax cuts are likely to increase the US deficit further.

De-globalisation can create winners like Mexico, Vietnam, and India, which gained export market share during the first US-China trade war.

Any ceasefire in Ukraine or the Middle East will be unstable, with ongoing conflict risks for investors next year.

The Eurozone faces political risks, with a possible election in France and a planned poll in Germany, and challenges in boosting German growth.