When a misguided young man crawled onto a roof and took aim at the former US president, he could have thrown the world into turmoil. As it is, the shooter’s actions may have already tipped the balance in the race for the White House.

We can’t predict the future. We can only anticipate, to the best of our ability, what’s likely to happen and take measures to mitigate the risks that we do identify. Here’s our earlier analysis of the upcoming US election that includes three scenarios in which Trump wins.

Our latest House View report, which was completed before the tragic events in Pennsylvania, didn’t anticipate an assassination attempt. But it does recognise the unpredictability that’s making our jobs as investors more difficult, but also more exciting.

When so much is unknown, it can lead to decision paralysis. However, as I keep reminding anyone who’ll listen, investors still have opportunities. In fact, we’ve developed a range of options to address the impact of what I’d classify as ‘grey swans’ - those risks that are recognised, but less likely.

We continue to see opportunities in corporate risk and are modestly overweight duration, amid expectations of a ‘soft landing’ for the US economy, encouraging inflation data and in anticipation of more interest-rate cuts by major central banks. We’ve also upgraded our view on real estate (find out more in Craig's article).

Here’s a summary by asset class:

Source: abrdn, June 2024. The views expressed should not be construed as advice or an investment recommendation on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment.

In this July edition of the Investment Outlook, representatives of different asset classes once again highlight the latest developments within their investment universes. Some of the articles this quarter explore selected House View themes in more detail.

For example, Mark Munro blows the cobwebs off his history books to see how bonds have performed during the 12 months following a ‘first’ rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Here’s a spoiler alert – many do rather well!

Craig Wright examines core real estate – those assets that are the cornerstone of many property portfolios – and finds good reason to believe that the worst may be over for these battered assets.

Corporate activities, such as mergers and share buybacks, are under the spotlight in Martin Connaghan’s contribution to this quarter’s equities discussion. Will they drive performance? Do we know whether this is even a good thing?

Finally, Nick Gaskell and Iain Pyle have scoured the periodic table to identify the ‘future minerals’ that will help power the energy transition. Find out what they think is the best way to play the next commodities ‘super cycle’.

I hope you enjoy these articles.