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Key highlights

  • Trump wins US presidential election, Republicans control Congress.
  • Congress to focus on extending Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, deliver new tax cuts.
  • Proposed tax cuts could cost some US$10 trillion. Ambition to be constrained by deficit.
  • Trump administration to prioritise restrictions on immigration, trade.
  • Expect higher nominal GDP growth, inflation.
  • Fed may cut rates more slowly.

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What does Trump’s win mean for emerging markets?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House opens the door to a wide range of shocks for emerging markets, both positive and negative.

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Trump's win could prompt more aggressive ECB easing

If implemented in full, Trump’s tariff policies would weigh meaningfully on European growth. Even partial or temporary implementation would represent a drag, which would not be fully offset by any associated increase in defence spending. As such, we expect the ECB to ease policy slightly more rapidly.

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Markets will have to wait for Chinese stimulus

Chinese policymakers announced a RMB 10 trillion debt swap, providing some breathing room for cash-strapped local governments. Additional support for consumers and businesses should eventually arrive, not least because stimulus will be necessary to offset another trade war under President Trump. But the focus on derisking and shoring up balance sheets may continue to disappoint market expectations for big stimulus.

Markets will have to wait for Chinese stimulus
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US Election: It’s Trump. What's next?

Markets are focusing on the reflationary aspects of Trump’s agenda. This has meant a stronger dollar, higher yields, US equites up, and oil lower. But these moves may evolve as different aspects of Trump’s economic agenda shift in and out of focus. Higher nominal GDP growth and higher-than-otherwise interest rates are the macro implications we are most confident about for now.

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What does Trump mean for the economy?

Join Macro Bytes to dissect the US election results, Trump's policy agenda and its market implications, with expert insights from the team

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