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Global Macro Research4 min Watch

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - November 2024

In our Monthly Macro video for November, Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, discusses what Trump’s leadership may mean for taxes, the deficit, immigration, trade, growth and inflation.

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - November 2024
Global Macro Research1 min Read

What does Trump’s win mean for emerging markets?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House opens the door to a wide range of shocks for emerging markets, both positive and negative.

What does Trump’s win mean for emerging markets?
Global Macro Research1 min Read

Trump's win could prompt more aggressive ECB easing

If implemented in full, Trump’s tariff policies would weigh meaningfully on European growth. Even partial or temporary implementation would represent a drag, which would not be fully offset by any associated increase in defence spending. As such, we expect the ECB to ease policy slightly more rapidly.

Trump's win could prompt more aggressive ECB easing
Global Macro Research1 min Read

Markets will have to wait for Chinese stimulus

Chinese policymakers announced a RMB 10 trillion debt swap, providing some breathing room for cash-strapped local governments. Additional support for consumers and businesses should eventually arrive, not least because stimulus will be necessary to offset another trade war under President Trump. But the focus on derisking and shoring up balance sheets may continue to disappoint market expectations for big stimulus.

Markets will have to wait for Chinese stimulus
Global Macro Research1 min Read

US Election: It’s Trump. What's next?

Markets are focusing on the reflationary aspects of Trump’s agenda. This has meant a stronger dollar, higher yields, US equites up, and oil lower. But these moves may evolve as different aspects of Trump’s economic agenda shift in and out of focus. Higher nominal GDP growth and higher-than-otherwise interest rates are the macro implications we are most confident about for now.

US Election: It’s Trump. What's next?
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