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A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets. 

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Global Macro Research1 min Read

US Election: It’s Trump. What's next?

Markets are focusing on the reflationary aspects of Trump’s agenda. This has meant a stronger dollar, higher yields, US equites up, and oil lower. But these moves may evolve as different aspects of Trump’s economic agenda shift in and out of focus. Higher nominal GDP growth and higher-than-otherwise interest rates are the macro implications we are most confident about for now.

US Election: It’s Trump. What's next?
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A budget for growth, or for higher gilt yields?

New fiscal rules, elevated taxes, higher government borrowing, and boosts to public expenditure. As financial markets assess these changes, discover our perspective on the UK budget and its potential impact on growth.

A budget for growth, or for higher gilt yields?
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What are the impacts of Japan's LDP losing its majority?

The Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition lost its majority in Sunday’s lower house elections. An expanded governing coalition or supply-and-confidence arrangement should not lead to major policy reversals, although fiscal policy may be looser. While domestic risks remain, the dominant market drivers will be the corporate reform story, US-Japan rate differentials, and the US election.

What are the impacts of Japan's LDP losing its majority?
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How will the presidential election result affect emerging markets?

A look at how election results will have major implications for the emerging market outlook, affecting both the future economic backdrop and geopolitical landscape.

How will the presidential election result affect emerging markets?
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Emerging markets outlook: Easing cycle broadens

An emerging market cutting cycle is underway, helped by a US ‘soft landing’. As growth slows, we expect more monetary easing, but lingering inflationary pressures, still reasonable growth and political uncertainty will likely cap the extent to which policy rates are lowered.

Emerging markets outlook: Easing cycle broadens
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