Global Macro Research
Macroeconomics

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - October 2024

Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist, is back in the hot seat this month with more on US recession fears, the Fed’s plans, news of Chinese stimulus and the Harris-Trump contest.

Author
Luke Bartholomew
Deputy Chief Economist

Duration: 3 Mins

Date: 03 Oct 2024

Key Highlights

 

  • The US economy is slowing, with rising unemployment and other signs of recession. But a ‘soft landing’ is expected amid indications of rising labour supply and robust corporate profitability.
  • The Federal Reserve has initiated a series of consecutive interest-rate cuts that will continue through this year and into the middle of next year. This should help the Fed be perceived as proactive, rather than reactive, in its easing.
  • The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to continue their rate-cutting cycles into 2026, while the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates due to inflation pressures.
  • China has implemented substantial policy easing, including rate cuts and fiscal measures, to address weak growth and low inflation. That said, structural economic challenges remain.
  • The US election is highly competitive, with significant potential for market volatility as the race between Harris and Trump is close. This will affect the policy outlook and economic sentiment.