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In our Monthly Macro video for November, Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, discusses what Trump’s leadership may mean for taxes, the deficit, immigration, trade, growth and inflation.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House opens the door to a wide range of shocks for emerging markets, both positive and negative.
If implemented in full, Trump’s tariff policies would weigh meaningfully on European growth. Even partial or temporary implementation would represent a drag, which would not be fully offset by any associated increase in defence spending. As such, we expect the ECB to ease policy slightly more rapidly.
Chinese policymakers announced a RMB 10 trillion debt swap, providing some breathing room for cash-strapped local governments. Additional support for consumers and businesses should eventually arrive, not least because stimulus will be necessary to offset another trade war under President Trump. But the focus on derisking and shoring up balance sheets may continue to disappoint market expectations for big stimulus.
Join Macro Bytes to dissect the US election results, Trump's policy agenda and its market implications, with expert insights from the team